Retail inflation in India in September rises to 7.4% – Deutsche Bank

Nikhil Kumar Mondal, 65, a retired school principal, buys vegetables from a vendor at a market on the outskirts of Kolkata, India May 20, 2022. Picture taken May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Chowdhuri Rupak /File Photo

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MUMBAI, Sept 22 (Reuters) – India’s headline retail inflation is expected to hit a five-month high of 7.4% in September, with the risk of rising if the momentum in food and vegetable prices increases. accelerates further in the rest of the month, Deutsche Bank said.

“Our nowcasting exercise reveals CPI inflation to be around 7.4% yoy in September from 7.0% yoy in August,” India’s chief economist Kaushik Das said. in a note dated September 20.

India’s retail price inflation remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s upper 6% tolerance band for eight consecutive months through August.

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The foreign bank expects inflation to average 7% in October-December and 6.4% in January-March, with a full-year average projection of 6.9%, above the estimate of 6 .7% of the RBI.

The RBI’s inflation target is 4%, with a tolerance of 200 basis points on either side.

Deutsche Bank expects core inflation to be 6.1% in September and average 6% for the current fiscal year, with upside-biased risks given that the momentum of the inflation linked to services could gain ground in the coming months.

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Reporting by Dharamraj Lalit Dhutia; Editing by Savio D’Souza

Our standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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